This is a summary of my more detailed post on Friday, outlining the key points.

• The DfT surveyed traffic in June and July.
• They waited until September to ensure no late corrections to the data.
• By this time many of the bikers surveyed had taken their bikes off the road for the winter.
• At this point the DfT checked the figures against the DVLA's VED database.
• The bikes which had been removed from the road were mistakenly assumed to be evading tax.
• The error was then amplified by a "corrective" assumption that tax dodgers would use their bikes less and get missed by the survey, the number of evaders would be underestimated. This one step doubled the number of bikers assumed to be riding without tax and it did this because it assumed bike mileage figures would match evasion figures in the same way as they do for trucks (The only category of vehicle they have stats for). This doesn't take account of the important fact that the average motorcycle covers many, many fewer miles than the average trucks. That means that the people you see most often are not necessarily people traveling furthest as they would be for trucks, but are much more likely to be people who just live nearby to a survey site. This means that the assumption that you will see lower than actual levels of evasion (because tax dodgers travel less far) is undermined, as only a very few of the people on bikes are travelling large distances.
• Because of the small number of motorcyclists surveyed, the DfT's own figures show that the margin for error would be at least 20% either way even if the incorrect assumptions were to have been true.

What does this mean?

These are quite major flaws in the methodology of the survey and (I think) blow apart the reported figures. The headline figure was extrapolated from an “observed” figure of only 16% on the basis more tax evading motorcyclists would have been missed, as they don't travel as far, which I've shown above is almost certainly a flawed assumption. If only around 10% of the riders had SORNed their bike at the end of August or during early September, the vast majority of the “untaxed” bikers would disappear from the stats. Add to that a 20% margin of error, because of the small survey size and the figures may well be comparable with the rates for cars. A precise figure is going to be very difficult to arrive at, as no-one currently has the relevant data that could quantify the errors more precisely.

Whose fault is it?

The mathematics used in the statistical modelling was all applied correctly. The errors arose because of mistaken assumptions about how motorbikes are used and would probably have been spotted if a single representative of the motorcycling community had been consulted at the design stage of the survey. What probably should have been spotted is the ridiculously high figure of 38% evasion, which should, I believe, have raised alarm bells. I suspect that this is why Southampton University were asked to double check the result, but they only checked the statistical techniques used, and did not carry out an assessment of way the VED data had been obtained nor of the validity of the underlying assumptions.

So the blame for all of this lies with whoever designed the survey and data processing methodology, and not with anyone who actually carried it out.

I think at the very least all bikers are owed an apology from Edward Leigh MP, of the Public accounts committee for his intemperate remarks. And another apology is due, I feel, from the DfT, for managing to balls up the figures in quite such a spectacular fashion.

Labels: bike, bike insurance, bikesure, dvla, moped, motorbike, motorcycle, sorn

link | posted by Dave Wilson at Monday, January 28, 2008
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Unlike many bike insurance companies, many of our staff are enthusiastic bikers, who like nothing more than a good ride out and are far happier on two wheels than four. So when we hire staff who aren't already bikers, we feel we have to do our bit and help them get bitten by the biking bug, too.

So, as well as their exhaustive insurance and underwriting training, which lasts several months, we round up all the trainee staff who aren't already into bikes, and send them off to do their Compulsory Basic Training (CBT).

As you can imagine, letting a bunch of novices loose on a bike often has hilarious consequences, so we got the latest batch of victims recruits to record their experiences for posterity. Here is Richard's diary, we'll have more in due course:

CBT: Richard Rowsell

The day was 14th June 2007 when I took my CBT...

The phrase that I repeated most during this experience would be "oh cock", let me explain.

On the morning of the 14th I called M.I.C.K.S (Riding School - apparently it's supposed to stand for Motorcycle Instruction Course Keep Safe, but since it's run by a guy called Mick, we're guessing he was a C.Hi.P.S. fan) to see if there are any spaces, I found that there was an opening later that day at 13:15.

13:05 - Arrived at M.I.C.K.S

13:20 - Given brief about what we will be doing and reassured that all will be ok and have fun

13:40 - Taken to the off road area to try out the bikes, completed the moving off and stopping section. We were allowed to go down a track and back that I did several times at high speed with no problems. Here comes the first "oh cock"... I went down a part with loose stones and turned around, I moved off and changed up the gears but missed a gear change and massively over revved causing me to think "oh cock, this isn’t good" so I grabbed the front brake and due to the big stones we were on, buried the bike into the floor. I continued forward but luckily kept upright, leaving the bike in a cloud of dust.

// Damage Report - Electrics OK - Foot peg Bent - Gear Lever is now at new Snazzy Angle - Front Left Indicator is Hanging Off - Front Light at Funny Angle \\

14:30 - Taken back to base where lots of Gaffer Tape was the order of the day... followed by several minutes of bending the gear lever into a less interesting position

14:50 - Said to Julie (An instructor) "I may have dropped the bike" Got told, "you're not a biker as you have to crash 3 times to earn the title of biker"

Sulked for 20 minutes…

15:10 – Taken out on road on recently repaired (if Gaffer tape counts) bike, although the gear lever is still at a funny angle

15:15 – First junction, buggered up clutch and pulled a mini wheelie!

15:40 – 60mph side road, getting overtaken by massive lorries. This is scary as hell, as my mirrors don’t even show anything behind me, as they are rubbish {we are going at 35mph}

15:55 – Radio contact is lost!

16:00 – Car overtakes me and cuts me off from the group so I cannot see the instructor and he cannot see me

16:46 – Other pupil in front of me stalls the bike on a big junction, the instructor is the other side of the road

17:25 – QE Hospital roundabout – Instructor goes straight on, other pupil goes round the whole roundabout! "oh cock" I know to go straight on but follow to keep her company just in case she panicked.

17:40 – CBT COMPLETED

Thanks goes to Rob “the Bossman” Balls for the opportunity to do this.

Labels: cbt, chinese scooter, compulsory basic training, learner bikes, learner legal, learning to ride, moped, motorcycle instruction, teenage rider insurance, young rider insurance

link | posted by Dave Wilson at Monday, June 18, 2007
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There have been a plethora of new makes and models of moped and scooter in recent years, the vast majority from China. In fact the influx is so rapid that many motorcycle insurance companies are unable to keep up, as the bikes often aren't listed in the UK lists of make and model that are usually used to calculate your insurance premium.

Bikesure doesn't work like that. Our long experience with insuring custom bikes, trikes and rare classics means we quote for each and every bike on its own individual merits. This means we are one of the few companies able to cover every road-legal model of scooter, no matter how unusual or new to the market. So give us a try for Chinese Scooter Insurance.

Now if only someone could do something about the "Chinglish" slogans that the manufacturers write on their bikes...


"Shen Yang - The New Generational Scooter Fron Earth"


"No One In the World Can Be My Best Partner Except the Dio - New Generation"


More here with pictures!

Labels: chinese scooter, insurance, moped, scooter

link | posted by Dave Wilson at Wednesday, February 14, 2007
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